Tipsters are shysters aren't they? Ring a betting line and you'll hear minutes of interminable waffle before our man, with a voice suggesting he is imparting the wisdom of Solomon
 himself, urges you to lump on to the odds on favourite in the 3.40 at Sedgefield. Bright Golden Haze doesn't approve. Long convinced that there is value to be had in non-League betting, I am launching a fully transparent experiment. The enormous sum of £10 has been deposited in my SkyBet account and I am declaring war! The battleground is the Southern League and my rules are simple:
- all bets must be £1.00 (what can I say? I'm a high-roller),
- and using SkyBet (better odds may be available elsewhere but I can't be bothered to look), all bets must be at even money or better.
Every week I will record my bets here and we will see how things stand at the end of the season.
LATEST:
I can't be bothered any more. The BGH betting school is chastened by its failure and has closed.
|
No. of bets |
Winners |
Losers |
Postponed |
Balance |
Balance v Original stake |
|
12 |
3 |
7 |
2 |
£4.70 |
47% |
Week 7: Saturday 19th December
The betting school is closed this week. The only prediction I am making is that there will be loads of postponements tomorrow so it's not worth guessing which games will be on to have a flutter on. Normal service i.e. losing, will be resumed next week.
Week 6: Monday 7th - Saturday 12th December
Not going well is it? No winner for seven bets and I'm changing tack with a midweek double. I'm going for Cambridge City to beat Hemel Hempstead at 1/3 tonight and Truro to bounce back from their humiliation at Stourbridge tomorrow and beat Evesham (who surely won't relish the midweek trip to Cornwall) at 4/5. As a double that amounts to odds of 7/5 so I'm not breaking my rules.
| Match |
Prediction |
Bet won? |
Winnings (including stake) |
Notes |
|
Cambridge v Hemel Hempstead
Truro v Evesham |
Home win double @ 7/5 |
No |
-£1.00 |
Just the one away win this time (and a draw). |
At least Cambridge drew which counts as a major triumph. Not that it would have saved me money. It's fair to say that the Betting School is in crisis. I could pick them at random and do better than this. Two more "tips" for this weekend (if anyone is actually using this as a betting service, which I do not believe for one second, but if you are, save yourself the hassle and stick it in an Icelandic bank). Firstly, there's a little bit of reverse pyschology. My home tips always lose, so £1 is going straight on Stourbridge to beat Oxford City at 6/5. No justification other than wanting Stourbridge to lose. Secondly, the mighty Yeltz will win at Didcot at even money. Didcot are improving but I reckon they'll struggle to contain a Yeltz side who will want to improve on Wednesday night's draw. This, in case you are wondering, is reverse reverse psychology.
| Match |
Prediction |
Bet won? |
Winnings (including stake) |
Notes |
|
Stourbridge v Oxford |
Home win @ 6/5 |
No |
-£1.00 |
Away win |
|
Didcot v Yeltz |
Away win @ evens |
Yes |
£2.00 |
At last... |
Week 5: Saturday 5th December
Last week was an unmitigated disaster and this week looks just as tough. Discretion is the better part of valour but not for BGH it isn't. Two more home wins are predicted in what could be a make or break week. Firstly, I'm backing Clevedon to beat Bedford at 6/5. Neither side are in form with just one win each in the last six but Clevedon have some fight about them, as demonstrated in their come back against the Yeltz the other week, and I reckon they could be due a win. Paul Holleran let me down last week and I'm really tempting fate now by tipping them to lose at Tiverton. Tivvy didn't look a bad side against us last week whilst Leamington's dreadful form sees them in 21st place in the form table with just four points from the last six.
| Match |
Prediction |
Bet won? |
Winnings (including stake) |
Notes |
|
Clevedon v Bedford |
Home win @ 6/5 |
No |
-£1.00 |
Away win |
|
Tiverton v Leamington |
Home win @ 5/4 |
No |
-£1.00 |
Away win |
Week 4: Saturday 28th November
Three bets this week and not a draw in sight. In fact it's home wins all the way this time round starting with Chippenham to beat Brackley @ 5/4. It's never easy to go to Chippenham and I reckon Brackley are in a slightly false position in the league. They're OK but they shouldn't be second. Next, I'm going for the Holleran factor yet again. He couldn't beat the weather last week but his troops can overcome Bashley at 11/8 this weekend. And finally - they've got to win some time, haven't they? And what better time for Rugby to get off the mark than against the Gasboys who, let's face it, haven't been setting the world alight themselves. Rugby probably won't win but it's worth a sneaky quid at 2/1. Plus it gives us an extra reason to hope Stourbridge lose.
| Match |
Prediction |
Bet won? |
Winnings (including stake) |
Notes |
|
Chippenham v Brackley |
Home win @ 5/4 |
No |
-£1.00 |
Away win |
|
Leamington v Bashley |
Home win @ 11/8 |
No |
-£1.00 |
Away win |
| Rugby v Stourbridge |
Home win @ 2/1 |
No |
-£1.00 |
Away win |
Week 3: Saturday 21st November
There's a reduced programme tomorrow because of the FA Trophy and I could quite easily leave all of the games alone. But I won't. I'm not particularly confident of either of these bets but I won something in the work Children In Need raffle today, and I'm therefore obviously on a roll. Firstly, after successfully backing Merthyr to win twice, I'm performing an illogical volte face and tipping Leamington to triumph in Wales at 2/1. The form table is screaming at me not to do it but I'm hoping the Paul Holleran factor will kick in. My second tip goes against the grain a bit as well. I failed last time I tipped a draw but I'm still going for exactly that result between Hednesford and Oxford City at 5/2. Both teams are in good form - Hednesford unbeaten in eight league games and Oxford in nine - so I'm hoping they'll cancel each other out.
The results:
| Match |
Prediction |
Bet won? |
Winnings (including stake) |
Notes |
|
Merthyr v Leamington |
Away win @ 2/1 |
Match postponed |
£1.00 refunded |
|
|
Hednesford v Oxford |
Draw @ 5/2 |
No |
-£1.00 |
No more draw predictions. |
Week 2: Saturday 14th November
Two more bets this week, starting firstly with Merthyr's trip to Rugby Town. On paper it's a clash between the bottom two sides but that is only because of Merthyr's ten point penalty for entering administration. Look at the form guide and you get a clearer picture, Rugby are rock bottom but Merthyr are third with 11 points from their last six games. They did the business for me last week and I reckon they will again at 6/5.
My second bet is Hemel Hempstead to beat Bashley at home. On paper this is harder to justify but Hemel have a decent home record and Bashley have had a couple of bad results lately so the 2/1 price is worth a go.
The results:
| Match |
Prediction |
Bet won? |
Winnings (including stake) |
Notes |
|
Rugby v Merthyr |
Away win @ 6/5 |
Yes |
£2.20 |
4-1 win to Merthyr. Never in doubt. |
|
Hemel Hempstead v Bashley |
Home win @ 2/1 |
Match postponed |
£1.00 refunded |
That saved SkyBet £2.00. |
Week 1: Saturday 7th November
The experiment kicks off with two bets, firstly Merthyr Tydfil to beat Banbury at 6/4. Banbury have started the season excellently, certainly much better than most people could have predicted but, the mighty Yeltz aside, teams find it tough going at Penydarren Park. Merthyr are no mugs and I reckon they will burst the Banbury bubble tomorrow.
My second bet is slightly riskier because it's really hard to predict draws but I have feeling that Bashley v Cambridge may end that way at 5/2. Cambridge are unbeaten this season and have drawn four out of five on the road whereas Bashley had their 100% home record emphatically ended by Hednesford two weeks ago. I predict a tight, low scoring encounter that will end all square.
The results:
| Match |
Prediction |
Bet won? |
Winnings (including stake) |
Notes |
|
Merthyr v Banbury |
Home win @ 6/4 |
Yes |
£2.50 |
Thanks, Cortez Belle. |
|
Bashley v Cambridge |
Draw @ 5/2 |
No |
-£1.00 |
I said draws were hard. |
| 